#Official Commentary of Ekaterina Martyanova on absence of alternatives to Minsk agreements
When there are no more arguments, cannons start ‘talking’. This Otto von Bismarck’s words cannot more exactly describe the current confrontation between the Republics and Ukraine.
Reporting about events related to a conflict escalation in late January, I have already stressed the fact that Poroshenko is trying to shake the money tree to maintain his regime as a victim. The stake of the current Ukrainian leadership may look safe, because in case of catching the next donors of the Ukrainian crisis on the hook, the Poroshenko’s criminal clan will receive another loans, tranches, humanitarian aid and give some bones to people to make them wonder who’s going to pay for this banquet.
In the absence of necessary support in sufficient quantity and quality (because Ukrainian politicians only prefer money), military provocations are aimed at stopping the confrontation, but at the time of controlling new territories in Donbass. Then it will become an argument for radicals that Ukraine wins back ‘their’ land and it will positively reflect on a presidential rating in general.
The Ukrainian media had been reporting that the Armed Forces of Ukraine captured the Yasinovataya’s checkpoint since January 28. There was something unimaginable on social media and low-grade information websites. For instance, Horlovka was separated from Donetsk, there was an assault of Donetsk, Head of the DPR and the OSCE left the city, etc. All this was accompanied by some readers’ euphoria, which could be confirmed by many posted comments.
The Ukrainian media did not say a word that a violation of withdrawal lines is a direct infringement of the Minsk agreements at that moment. And besides, the Minsk process has been extended until the end of 2016 and it is now possible to ‘experiment’ on what alternatives are available. There is only one – war.
So, an extraordinary tactics chosen by the Ukrainian leadership is evident. The occupation of new territories. Ukraine counted on any response from the Republics, so it would be possible to convene the UN Security Council, where Ukraine chairs. So they can show there another passports, shell splinters and photos in Powell’s manner.
There are two options. Either they receive guaranteed financial and military support among certain forces. (So they can return to original positions and squander received bonuses for a while.) Or they can entrench in the new territories and plan the next provocation. (This has already been the case with the terrorist attack in Volnovakha, the occupation of ‘grey’ areas and displacement of the contact line near Debaltsevo.)
“This is the Ukrainian land” is an argument, which the Ukrainian side uses every time it raids, initially contains the violation of the Minsk agreements. But the worst thing is that when our army fights the aggressor back, the neo-Nazi regime start randomly shelling our cities and organizing a humanitarian disaster in nearby towns as it was in Avdeyevka.
The policy of terror adopted by the Ukrainian authority allows Kiev to drag out and even violate the implementation of the Minsk agreements, because politicians are trying to cover up the country’s internal problems under the pretext of the war. A radical part of the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada is using combat activities to consolidate society in the context of the country’s socio-economic collapse. However, Kiev will not be able to hide the truth from Ukrainian citizens for too long.
The current Ukrainian President is driven into a corner since there has been no support from the US State Department. The United Nations called for a complete ceasefire and the implementation of the Minsk agreements, which Petro Poroshenko had openly sabotaged and continued to give criminal orders to the military. Kiev was clearly not expecting such a reaction from the new White House administration. The longer Poroshenko takes time, the closer an inevitable fall of the criminal regime is. The Ukrainian politicians cannot reach a consensus within the country, not to mention foreign policy relations.
Returning to Bismarck’s words, it is worth noting that a full-scale military confrontation can be avoided as long as there is a negotiating platform. The level of escalation has indeed been low over the past two years compared to the previous period. Now, after long processes of discussion and harmonization, Kiev must to honour the commitments made. But, as they say, force is the last argument.
I hope that the world community will help to bring maddened Poroshenko back to the negotiating table in Minsk and instead of supporting the “victims” of aggression (in fact the perpetrators) will have an impact on Kiev to fulfill its obligations under Minsk agreements.
Ekaterina Martyanova, the DPR People’s Council deputy